Broadly unchanged
- Consumer confidence fell 0.3pts last week to 67.7pts. The four-week moving average dropped 1.1pts to 68.3pts.
- ‘Weekly inflation expectations’ ticked up 0.1ppt to 6.2%, while the four-week moving average was unchanged at 6.0%.
- ‘Current financial conditions’ (over the last year) declined 1.4pts, and ‘future financial conditions’ (next 12 months) was unchanged.
- ‘Short-term economic confidence’ (next 12 months) was down 3.9pts, while ‘mediumterm economic confidence’ (next five years) decreased 2.0pts.
- The ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex lifted 5.6pts.
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The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rating is based on 1,019 interviews conducted online and over the telephone during the week to Sunday. *Not seasonally adjusted.
ANZ Economist, Sophia Angala, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence was broadly unchanged last week but remained historically low, recording its twelfth-lowest result since the series began in 1973. Confidence in economic conditions declined, which may reflect the easing in labour market conditions shown in last week’s labour force data, with the unemployment rate rising in September to its highest level since 2021. In contrast, the ‘time to buy a major household item’ was the only subindex to record a rise last week, potentially reflecting households bringing forward purchases amid elevated inflation expectations.
Overall, persistently weak confidence suggests household spending growth is likely to remain subdued over the near term. Alongside this, the RBA Monetary Policy Board’s September meeting minutes reaffirmed its concerns about upside risks to inflation, and we continue to expect the RBA to hike the cash rate by 25bp at its November meeting.
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