Winter crop harvest: Producers face patchiness behind the headlines

The Australian winter crop is well underway with harvest forecasts improving throughout spring, according to ANZ’s latest Agri InFocus Commodity Insights report. 

However, while volume has improved for some, that outlook remains patchy from region to region. When combined with a lower price story, producers’ bottoms lines are not as strong as some might expect.

As detailed in the report, forecasts are putting this year’s national winter crop harvest at one of the largest on record – but that bumper outcome is tempered by two factors; subdued grains prices and patchy yields, particularly across south-eastern Australia.

ANZ Associate Director of Agribusiness Research, Madeleine Swan, said: “The harvest story is being led by stellar outcomes for Western Australia, northern New South Wales, and Queensland. And while the headlines coming out as a result look like another very strong harvest season across the nation, that story isn’t being mirrored in every paddock.

“Cool weather, frosts and patchy rainfall in some areas have meant that yields are lower than the headlines would indicate. When that’s combined with grains prices – which remain relatively low, some producers may find their bottom lines being squeezed.

“In price terms, the shining light remains the canola crop where prices are up, and yields appear to be coming in stronger than first anticipated. While the global canola price has fallen somewhat in recent weeks, it remains strong in comparison to this time last year.

“Global trade and politics will always play a significant role in determining prices for croppers, and this year it seems that the stellar lentil and chickpea crops across India and Pakistan has led to the prospect of import quotas in the new year, as well as significantly lower global prices. For the increasing number of producers who include lentils and chickpeas in their rotations, this year’s returns will be heavily impacted by that global glut.

“While in general the volume side of the equation looks to be strong across the board, for those struggling for yield, the weaker price side of the equation still leaves some producers with some pause,” concluded Ms Swan.

Further insights are available in the 2025/2026 Summer edition of ANZ’s Agri InFocus Commodity Insights report. 

Download PDF    

For media enquiries contact:

Alexandra La Sala
+61 499 292 554

Kate Power
+61 481 547 556