In bloom: our $19 billion fresh produce garden

From the mangoes on your summer fruit platter to the almonds in your trail mix, Australian produce is not just feeding domestic households but winning fans around the world.

“Rising middle-class demand in Asia for safe, premium produce is driving long term opportunity.”

From 1980 until 2025, fruits, vegetables, nuts and flowers grown in Australia have grown from a production value of just over $1 billion, into an almost $20 billion industry.

So, what is underpinning this strength in the horticulture sector?

The sector is entering 2025–26 in a robust position mostly underpinned by resilient domestic demand and record export earnings.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) estimates the gross value of horticulture production at $18.2 billion in 2024–25, rising to a forecast $19 billion in 2025–26.

Fruit and nuts together represent approximately 40 per cent of total horticulture production value, vegetables around 33 per cent, nursery and floriculture about 19 per cent and other minor categories the remaining two per cent.

To everything, there is a season

Production volumes have been supported by generally favourable conditions across most growing regions, although frost in southern Australia and heat events in Queensland trimmed some yields.

For everyday shoppers, that means more consistent supplies of oranges, carrots and avocados on supermarket shelves, even if some crops faced challenges along the way.

In the Sunraysia region of North-west Victoria and south-west NSW, table grapes, citrus and almonds continue to dominate export flows, while South Australia’s Riverland remains a major citrus-producing region, supported by established markets in Asia.

{Image 1 Grapes}

Northern Queensland’s mango and lychee crops again benefitted from their early harvest window, reaching markets ahead of southern producers, while Western Australia’s carrots, onions and citrus strengthened their position in Southeast Asia thanks to shorter shipping times.

Tasmania’s premium cherries and berries also continue to build their profile in high-value Asian markets.

Labour availability has improved compared with the pandemic period, helped by the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme, although growers continue to face higher wage bills than before the pandemic.

Input costs for fertiliser and energy have eased from their 2022 peaks but remain well above pre-COVID levels.

Reaping export rewards

Exports remain the strongest contributor to sector earnings. ABARES forecasts horticultural exports at $4.1 billion in 2024–25, rising to $4.4 billion in 2025–26 – extending a record-breaking run of earnings above $4 billion.

Behind those figures are the table grapes heading to China and Vietnam, the macadamias bound for India, and the cherries flown into Singapore and Hong Kong – everyday favourites at home that are also powering record trade abroad.

Fruit is the largest category, forecast at $1.8 billion then $1.9 billion, led by table grapes, citrus, cherries and avocados.

China, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia are among the main destinations.

Nuts are projected at $1.5 billion then $1.7 billion, dominated by almonds and macadamias, with India and China the largest markets.

Vegetables contribute $436 million then $445 million, with carrots, onions and leafy greens supplying Southeast Asian markets such as Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines.

Nursery, floriculture and other categories add the remainder, reflecting steady demand in both regional and global markets.

Cracking the almond market

Australia’s almond industry continues to consolidate its position as the world’s second largest producer. Production reached about 145,000 tonnes in 2024–25, with exports at 158,000 tonnes.

For consumers, almonds have become more than just a snack – they’re milk alternatives in coffee cups, ingredients in muesli bars and toppings on salads, making them part of everyday diets as well as a global trade success.

Volumes are forecast to ease to 143,000 tonnes in 2025–26 before recovering as new orchards mature. China is by far the largest buyer - taking close to half of all shipments -  followed by India.

{Image 2 Market Nuts}

Longer term, new orchards are expected to lift volumes further, although water availability in the Murray–Darling Basin remains a constraint.

Table grapes are also regaining momentum. Production is expected to reach 230,000 tonnes in 2024–25, with exports at 135,000 tonnes—the third-highest level on record. Demand is being driven by China, Vietnam and Indonesia, where Australia’s reputation for quality and branding helps defend market share against Chile and Peru.

Citrus growers are enjoying one of their best runs in years, with orange exports forecast at about 190,000 tonnes and mandarins at a record 105,000 tonnes in 2024–25. Japan and China remain reliable markets, while new protocols with South Korea are opening fresh opportunities.

Avocados are in a cyclical lull, with production slipping to around 128,000 tonnes in 2024–25. A rebound is expected in 2025–26, when output could reach 170,000 tonnes. That could be good news for Australian households, where avocados have increasingly become a staple, from smashed avo on toast for breakfast, to guacamole for ‘Taco Tuesdays’.

Oversupply remains an issue domestically, but exports into Asia are beginning to ease pressure and provide new avenues for growers.

Berries—including blueberries and strawberries— are holding steady in production. Export growth is modest but consistent, led by sales into Singapore,

Hong Kong, Thailand and Malaysia. Rising costs and import competition, however, continue to weigh on margins.

Global competition and opportunities

Global dynamics remain central to Australia’s outlook.

The berries, grapes and citrus Australians eat at home are the same products competing on supermarket shelves in Asia against rivals from Chile, Peru and South Africa – making the quality reputation of the Australian brand more important than ever.

Rising middle-class demand in Asia for safe, premium produce is driving long term opportunity, but competitive pressure is intensifying from Chile, Peru, South Africa, the United States and Mediterranean suppliers, particularly in grapes, citrus and berries.

China’s demand recovery has been especially important for grapes and citrus, while India is increasingly significant for nuts.

Shipping reliability has improved markedly since 2022, giving exporters confidence in meeting retail programs, but currency shifts are supportive for now, with volatility still a risk.

Biosecurity risks such as fruit fly and varroa mite remain significant threats, while water availability in major irrigation districts is a continuing concern.

With ABARES projecting horticulture production to reach $19 billion and exports to $4.4 billion in 2025–26, the sector is set to post another record.

The challenge will be sustaining momentum against intensifying global competition, rising costs and climate variability.

Click here for the full Spring ANZ Agri In Focus report 

Michael Whitehead is Executive Director for Food, Beverage and Agribusiness at ANZ