Households scrambling: empty shelves and the egg shortage

Walk into a supermarket in Australia right now and there’s a good chance the egg section will have empty shelves, “two cartons per customer” signs, and price tags that make you do a double take.

“What was once a low-margin, high-volume system is now being reshaped by biosecurity risks, welfare standards and structural uncertainty.”

Eggs, once the dependable staple for brekkie, baking and budget dinners, have suddenly become scarce and expensive.

But what’s really going on? And is this just a temporary shortage – or a sign that the era of cheap, abundant eggs may be over?

The shortage: bird flu and beyond

Australia is experiencing a significant egg shortage, largely due to avian influenza (or bird flu). Since late 2023, outbreaks across Victoria and New South Wales have led to the culling of over one-million-layer hens. While the virus does not affect egg safety, it is devastating for farms – and it takes months to raise new hens to egg-laying age.

At the same time, long-term changes to animal welfare rules – including a nationally agreed phase-out of caged egg production by 2036 – have prompted some producers to exit or delay reinvestment. Adding to that is a less discussed but looming question: major supermarkets had pledged to stop selling caged eggs by 2025, but recent updates suggest that shift may be delayed – or softened – raising uncertainty for producers caught in transition.

Globally, Australia is not alone. The US has culled over 60 million birds in two years. Japan, the UK and parts of Europe have also seen disruptions. But with Australia producing around 5 billion eggs a year, even small shocks create outsized ripple effects.

Cracks in the supply chain

Eggs don’t magically appear in the chilled aisle. The process – from breeding hens to grading, packing and distribution – depends on a tightly managed chain. Any disruption, from disease to feed costs or transport issues, can affect availability.

About 90 per cent of Australia’s eggs are sold through supermarkets. The rest go to manufacturers, foodservice and catering – sectors that often have locked-in contracts and take priority when supply tightens, leavingless flexibility for everyday shoppers.

And -as during the pandemic - panic buying hasn’t helped. Some shoppers are snapping up eggs in bulk, despite their five-week shelf life.

Still a bargain?

Prices have risen sharply in recent months – not just in Australia, but globally. In the US, for example, the average retail price of a dozen eggs has surged (see chart 2), and similar trends have been seen in Japan, Europe and the UK.

Even with prices up, eggs remain one of the best-value protein sources. At around $6 per dozen for supermarket-brand free range, or $9 for extra-large free range, they still offer a nutritious, convenient option.

That’s still less than $1 per serve for a high-quality source of protein – far cheaper than most meats or seafood. It’s a point often overlooked in broader inflation discussions.

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Source: ABARES, ANZ

Demand keeps growing

Australians now eat around 250–260 eggs per person per year, up from about 150 in the 1990s. That puts us among the top consumers globally – though still behind Japan and Mexico, where per capita intake tops 300 eggs a year.

Consumer preferences have also shifted. Nearly half of all eggs sold in Australia are now free-range or organic – more costly to produce. And with rising feed, energy and labour costs, prices were climbing even before the latest bird flu outbreaks.

Despite the ongoing challenges, national egg production is forecast to rise in 2025 – a sign of industry resilience, but also a test of how quickly new flocks and systems can come online.

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Source: Federal Reserve of St Louis, ANZ

A new normal?

Perhaps the biggest shift is psychological - consumers may need to adjust to the idea the era of cheap, endlessly available eggs could be over.

With over a million hens culled and major reinvestment needed to meet future welfare expectations, egg production in Australia is entering a new phase. Prices are likely to remain elevated, with occasional supply dips.

Industry groups are calling for government support – including faster restocking approvals, clear guidance on cage-egg transitions and help with biosecurity upgrades. Supermarkets face a delicate balance between cost, supply and customer expectations.

But even as total production lifts, the supply chain may look different – more fragmented, more costly and less predictable than before. What was once a low-margin, high-volume system is now being reshaped by biosecurity risks, welfare standards and structural uncertainty.

What now?

Supply is expected to remain uneven well into late 2025. In the meantime, some Australians are turning to farmgate suppliers or even egg vending machines. Others are baking less or turning to substitutes.

Still, the humble egg hasn’t lost its place on the plate – and when shelves refill, many shoppers may appreciate them more than ever: not just as a breakfast staple, but as the product of a fragile, evolving system.

Rhea Bhagat is Associate Director, Food, Beverage and Agribusiness, Institutional at ANZ.